The Project Management Answer
The only reasonable answer here is "it depends." It depends on:
- The skills of your team. For example, how many of these upgrades have they done in a production or testing environment?
- What your migration plan entails. For example, how long will your backups and disaster-recovery planning and testing take?
- Your equipment. For example, the speed of your hard drives, tape backups, and network connections.
- Your environment. What organizational processes and procedures are involved in such an upgrade?
- Your rollback plan. What is involved in a roll-back for your environment, and how long does your team estimate that will take?
The sensible thing to do is to create a staging environment, test your upgrade and roll-back plans, and then factor in your other organizational considerations as required. Naturally, the time it takes to stage an upgrade in order to accurately estimate the production cut-over needs to be accounted for in your project plan, too.