Consider this scenario:
Backlog: 100 story points, project budget $100,000 (based on past team velocity/cost of delivering 1 SP per $1000 time spent). Stories are based on product development.
Week 1: Budget spent $10,000, 0 SP delivered Intensive UX design activities, refining the backlog, development setup
Week 2: Budget spent $10,000, 10 SP delivered Development starts, refining the backlog
Week 3: Budget spent $7,500, 10 SP delivered Development continues, refining the backlog
Week 4: Budget spent $12,500, 10 SP delivered Development continues, refining the backlog, intensive stakeholder workshop activities around later epics (approx. $5,000)
Cost to date is $40,000, we've delivered 30 story points. How do you forecast the cost to deliver the remaining 70 story points?
Applying a straight calculation: current project costs $1,333 per SP delivered so 70SP x $1,333 = $93,333 to go, meaning $133,333 total cost. But this doesn't account for the fact the UX design and workshops required early in the project have completed and the development team is delivering faster than anticipated.
Is there a common, recognised method to forecast remaining cost for Scrum development projects that accounts for surrounding design and analysis activities?