I'm a software QA that has limited knowledge of the agile methodology due to my sparse time with Agile teams in the past. Currently I'm exploring using Story points for my team instead of estimated hours.
One question I can't wrap my head around is, how do we estimate the no. of story points to commit for the next sprint? I've read that one way we can do that is by getting the average velocity. Is that right? And if it is, what is the frequency of calculating the average velocity?
Sprint duration: 2 weeks
Sprint 1 = 40 completed story points
Sprint 2 = 50 completed story points
Sprint 3 = 70 completed story points
Let's assume Sprint 4 has a rough estimate of 53 story points to commit based on the average ((40+50+70)/3).
How do we then do the estimation for Sprint 5 and onwards? Surely if we keep on doing a calculation of averaging wouldn't the value converge?