There are two methods of forecasting delivery dates for your backlog:

 1. [Reliable Scrum][1].
 1. Throughput Forecasting.


## Reliable Scrum ##
Is very similar to [what Todd is describing](https://pm.stackexchange.com/a/16376/32641) in his answer, but more accurate, because:

 - it forecasts your end-date not just by average historical velocity, but takes into account its deviance -- because velocity will jump up-down from one sprint to another.
 - it similarly takes into account statistics of how many new User Stories are added to your backlog by Product Owner -- and it can dramatically affect your delivery dates!

So, go by the link below, watch the video and download Excel file which does the math for you -- all you need is just to put your backlog items in it, their estimates and in which sprint they are completed or added.

## Throughput Forecasting ##
Is a technique, when you even don't need estimates for items in your backlog -- you just put "1" as estimates in your Reliable Scrum file for all User Stories in it, and then you get accurate forecast of when your backlog will be completed.

It seems like magic, but actually works very well, because it, in fact, takes into account fact time needed to complete your work items. I.e. it is not affected by noise from non-accurate expert estimates of your backlog items!

When I compared both methods on 5 projects, it shown that both methods work very well, and the last one produces even more accurate results than the first one.

For more information, please, see [Troy Magennis video][2]. But actually you don't need to understand the theory behind -- just know, that using Reliable Scrum with "1" as estimates for your backlog items works very well.

  [1]: http://reliable-scrum.de/
  [2]: https://vimeo.com/80351675