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This is standard risk management. First and most important never quote a number to management; express the estimate as an estimate with a confidence interval - it will take from 100 to 300 MD. (BartVanIngenSchenau describes a good way to model this; I was in the middle of composing a similar answer, but I defer to that excellent summary.) Consider ...


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You know your best case estimate and your worst case estimate. To get an estimate for the most likely time it will take to complete the project, you look at each possible problem and factor in how likely that problem is to occur and what time it costs to resolve if it does occur. The time you should put in your estimate to account for that problem is the ...


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