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I noticed that I don't feel entirely comfortable giving a "story point" estimate, because it seems too speculative. I agree with the other answers, but I thought I'd offer a slightly different take. Based on the above quote, the issue isn't story points, it is your discomfort with offering an estimate without a firm mathematical model. But story ...

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What you are feeling is normal whenever a new team starts off or you enter a team freshly. The current (2020) version of the Scrum Guide does not even mention story points or effort anymore; the closest it gets to this topic is a short blurb in the Sprint Planning section: Selecting how much can be completed within a Sprint may be challenging. However, the ...

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in your practice, do you use the aforementioned disaggregation? Why or why not? I encourage teams to focus on estimating consistency rather than on having a complicated estimating approach. There are a number of reasons for this, including: Complicated estimates encourage people to believe that their estimates are more accurate and when they prove to be ...

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Actually "story points" is exactly for not doing what you are trying to do :) The idea behind it is this; Estimations aren't accurate. Here's an article of mine about this. Trying to estimate takes a lot of effort. There's a misunderstanding that, every story point should match with an effort-based metric like hours, minutes, days, etc. That's ...

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I don't think there's a mathematical function to take in effort, risk, complexity, and uncertainty in order to return a single value in story points. I also don't think that approach makes sense. One way to think about it is to reduce the factors. Uncertainty is one form of risk, so you don't need to identify both. At worst, you'd look at three factors - ...

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Relative estimates (points) are useful because they tend to give a better approximation than absolute estimates and tend to be easier to work with. Points are just an approximation however, and they make most sense when looked at in aggregate and over a period of time. I wonder if you are making too much of the details. Some suggestions below. I certainly do ...

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