This has been argued on many forums and I have never seen a consensus emerge. In fact, people dig in their heels and success becomes predicated on the presence or absence of this single variable, when in fact the prediction of PM success is EXTREMELY hard to make and due to thousand of variables, many random and unknown.
There are too many stories of people jumping industries and domain with great success, not only in project management but also other business disciplines, to rule in that one must be of a domain or industry in order to be successful. Similarly, there are many stories of someone growing up in an industry / domain only to fizzle out as a leader or manager.
All projects are unique, performed at different times under different circumstances and environmental conditions. To assume a single flavor of PM will be successful in all of those projects is a bit of a stretch. And to assume there is such a thing as a single flavor of PM is equally a stretch.
You would best served to remove this notion of an absolute predictor of success from your thinking, e.g., the presence of industry expertise guarantees success while the absence guarantees failure. And, remove the idea that this complex process of prediction of success can be made with a single variable.