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Fixed the link to the 10 point quiz
Lunivore
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Use Agile (Scrum, XP, Kanban) when:

  • you want to benefit from fast feedback and burning visibility of objective data
  • you don't completely understand the value and definition of what you are building
  • your payoff/downside curves could vary widely
  • have a team passionate about it or a coach who will help them
  • have complicated project without all the experts you need or a complex project

Use Waterfall when:

  • the project is simple
  • the project is complicated, but you have the expertise to deliver it
  • it is all you know and you have no support for change
  • the upfront investment is not risky to make
  • you focus your performance measures on delivery date and budget

Great post by Dean Leffingwell on same topic - TAKE THE QUIZ - Picking Agile vs. Waterfall “Projects”: a Ten Point Quiz.