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I don't know if the name of the question is clear what I would like to do is:

I need to adjust the most likely time for an activity of my project in purpose of the probability of any path through the network being completed in x days must not be less than 0.94.

I know how to calculate the probability for a given time and a given path. But I don't know to solve this problem.

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PERT Analysis was discontinued as of MS Project 2010. You can add this functionality back into MS Project; it is not a trivial task though. A detailed, step-by-step explanation of how to do this can be found here: http://blogs.technet.com/b/projectified/archive/2009/11/24/3296207.aspx

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